Welcome to the GOP Primary Target WikiEdit
Let's find Republicans with liberal records on immigration and beat them in the 2016 congressional primaries.
Our model and hero is Dave Brat, who shocked the entire country by beating Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014.
Don't be shy. Post what you know, do some research, and correct any mistakes you see. Try to include links and quotations when you can.
When enough information is added about a target, we'll give the target his own page.
Top Target Area: Great Lakes StatesEdit
Susan Brooks IN 5 Edit
Indiana 5 includes the nicer suburbs of Indianapolis plus some farm country and rustbelt small towns. Brooks ’s a sophomore in Dan Burton’s old district. Burton had an A rating, Brooks has a D Susan Brooks likes to wear grey pajamas.
PVI +11 GOP
94.1% White 2.6% Black 1.3% Asian 1.6% Hispanic
She won her open seat primary in 2012 by 1 point against David McIntosh who is also pro-amnesty.
Indiana is a fairly cheap place to run for office and has some very conservative GOP primary voters. Probably the single best target I have found.
Rodney Davis IL 13 Edit
IL 13 includes St Louis suburbs and large area of central illinois including Champaign, Urbana, and Decatur. Davis is a freshman and very vulnerable to a Democrat given the PVI of zero/even.
82.7% White/ 11.3% Black / 3.5% Asian / 3.1% Hispanic
Davis won the open seat GOP primary by beating Erika Harold, 2003′s Miss America who is also pro-amnesty
Davis barely beat Harold, and would again be vulnerable in a primary. Even if we lose, a tough primary could weaken him, allowing a Dem to knock him off in 2016's general election and a better Republican to retake the seat in 2018.
Mike Turner OH 10 Edit
Ohio 10, formerly Ohio 3, includes Dayton, most of its suburbs, and a few agricultural counties to the east of Dayton.
Turner is the former Republican mayor of the City of Dayton, which he won despite it being 40% black (the suburbs are mostly 90%+ white)
The PVI only is +2 GOP, but Turner is considered safe from Dems. He is the anti-Romney, able to win blue collar Ohio Democrats in large numbers,
77.41% White / 17.13% Black / 2.11% Asian / 2.43% Hispanic
Turner is also not a good fundraiser and does not have personal wealth. Dayton is a very cheap media market. These both mean a grassroots campaign against him would face a more even fight than against most other incumbents.
In summary, Turner is golden in general elections with his cross-over Democrat appeal and high approval rating, but this is the type of area Trump polls best in and Turner could be vulnerable based on his strong amnesty support. He has also been in politics, like Cantor, for a long time and can be attacked on this basis.
Mike Bost IL 12 Edit
IL 12 includes some St. Louis suburbs and rural southern IL. It has a PVI of 0/even. It is 79.0% White, 17.1% Black, 3.0% Hispanic and 1.1% Asian.
Bost ran unopposed at all in 2014 primary. He then defeated an Democrat freshman incumbent who, in 2012, with high Dem turnout, won by 10 points. There is a good chance of Dems winning back this district in 2016.
John Moolenaar MI 4 Edit
Michigan's 4th district starts in Lansing’s northern suburbs and extend to include most north-central Michigan
PVI +4 GOP
92.6% White / 2.7% Hispanic / 1.8% Black / 0.9% Asian
Moolenaar is a freshman who won his 2014 open GOP primary against Paul Mitchell, despite Mitchell spending $5 million of his own money. While Mitchell had some strong but vague anti-immigration statements on his website, he refused to answer the pointed questions in the NumbersUSA survey.
Moolenaar could be very hard to beat after his impressive 2014 primary win. Our best case might be Moolenaar loses to a Democrat in 2016 and a better Republican runs and wins in 2018.
The area is rural and blue-collar enough a Democrat might run to Moolenaar’s right on immigration in 2016.
Moolenaar replaced Dave Camp, who was an excellent and thoughtful Republican, and who did a surprise retirement after only 2 terms in response to the corporate lobbies killing his tax reform plan.
Camp had a B+ rating compared to Moolenaar’s D, so getting Camp back out of retirement might be the ticket to defeating him
Harder Targets Edit
The following Republicans with very bad records are nonetheless tough targets for various reasons. We should still watch out a surprise challenge. After all, Eric Cantor was the Majority Leader and considered by everyone to be safe.
Barbara Comstock VA 10 Edit
Comstock is a freshman in the DC’s richest suburbs. She's beloved by immigration patriots like Levin and Limbaugh because of her long record of warmongering and anti-Clinton activism. She has an awful record but probably is impossible to beat given the district demographics.
San Joaquin Valley Republicans Edit
Jeff Denham CA 10 Edit
CA 10 includes the Northern San Joaquin Valley, centered on Modesto. It also includes Tracy and some extreme Silicon Valley commuters. The PVI is +1 GOP. 46.4% White 40.1% Hispanic 7.7% Asian 3.7% Black
Devin Nunes CA 22
Southern San Joaquin Valley
Includes parts of Fresno (north end and N and E suburbs) but mostly rural
PVI +10 GOP
44.8% Hispanic / 42.4% White / 7.3% Asian / 2.8% Black
These are tough targets because the local economy relies on illegal farm labor.
California’s jungle primary also makes it much harder to knock off pro-amnesty Republicans.
Florida Cuban Districts Edit
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen FL 27
Mario Diaz-Balart FL 25
Carlos Curbelo FL 26
The unique demographics of these districts makes them hard targets. It is probably not a coincidence all three Florida Cuban Republican districts have representatives with bad voting records. That's likely what the voters want.
Please Research / To Do ListEdit
Further research required for the following amnesty Republicans:
The worst Republicans without profiles:
Pat Tiberi OH 12 Mark Sanford SC 1 Steve Pearce NM 2 Elise Stefanik NY 21 John Katko NY 24 Tom MacArthur NJ 3 David Valadao CA 21 Ryan Costello PA 6 Cresent Hardy NV 4 William Hurd TX 23 Ann Wagner MO 2 Markwayne Mullin OK 2 Andy Barr KY 6 Adam Kinzinger IL 16 Martha McSally AZ 2
The follow Republicans have more mixed records, but are in solid conservative districts that should have solid immigration patriots:
Chris Smith NJ 4 Garret Graves LA 6 French Hill AR 2 Tom Emmer MN 6 (freshman who took over Michele Bachmann’s conservative district)